World Cup novice winner

Through Sunday, only seven different countries have won the FIFA World Cup (what we Americans would call the world championship of soccer, even though it's technically called "association football") in its 18 competitions. Four are from Europe (Italy, 4 times; Germany, 3; England, 1; France, 1), and three are from South America (Brazil, 5; Uruguay, 2; Argentina, 2). More interestingly, no European team has ever won outside of Europe (in 8 such Cups), and only one non-European team has ever won in Europe (Brazil, 1958 in Sweden, in 10 such Cups).

That will all change Sunday, July 11, when two European non-winners (the Netherlands and Spain) face off for this year's Cup in South Africa.

This isn't the place for me to discuss how I bleed orange (OK, not really, but the Dutch will know what I mean). Instead, I want to discuss whether the shift of worldwide power away from Europe has stopped.

FIFA has been consistently reducing the number of European sides in the Cup, supposedly in recognition of the growing strength of non-European nations. This year, only 6 European sides survived the first round and made the final 16, which was supposed to be a sign of parity. More problematic for the Europeans was that all of those teams faced other European teams in the round of 16, meaning that no more than 3 European clubs could make the final 8. But all three of those clubs then made the final 4, and two of them made the final 2, and they knocked off every one of the former South American winners along the way (Netherlands took out Brazil and Uruguay; Germany took out Argentina). Four years before, in Germany, when European teams took every spot in the final 4, most of us thought it was a fluke tied to the continent hosting the tournament. But two straight Cups of European success argues for more than a fluke -- it augurs a power shift.

We'll see just how far the power in soccer has shifted in 2014, when Brazil hosts the Cup for the first time since 1950. Meanwhile, we can say conclusively that Africa clearly didn't deserve its six spots in the Cup, and also that the U.S. team really shot itself in the foot by losing to Ghana, the only African team to (marginally) survive the first round.