The Iraqi elections

For all of Bush's blunders on the domestic front, his biggest gamble continues to pay off, as the elections in Iraq this past weekend proved once again.

Based on the preliminary count, it appears that the Iraqi constitution is going down to defeat in just two heavily Sunni provinces -- Anbar (the province containing Fallujah, which remains the heart of the al-Qaeda in Iraq operations) and Salahuddin. It appears to be passing in all other provinces, even the heavily Sunni Diyala and Nineveh provinces.

Average voting participation throughout Iraq was over 60% -- despite the fact that participation in Anbar province was only about 15%. In fact, it's hard to know how low Anbar's participation would have been without the huge turnout in Fallujah (thanks to the U.S. cleanout of terrorists in the town). Of course, the Fallujah voters overwhelmingly opposed the draft, but what else could be expected when Iraq's two oppressed groups (Shi'a and Kurds) got to write the new constitution with virtually no Sunni participation?

In fact, the Sunni in the "mixed" provinces broke about 40-60 (or even better) on the constitution, which indicates that the Sunni opposition isn't as monolithic as portrayed in the U.S., except in the two areas which still form the core of al-Qaeda in Iraq's support.

The final key showdown will be the December elections for the new Iraqi assembly set up under this constitution. If the Sunni political parties have any hope for a continuing role in the country, they'll participate, and that could be bad news for the al Qaeda in Iraq terrorists. Then again, the terrorists could turn running in the election into bad news for Sunni politicians if they are able to continue to assassinate at will.

"If anything in this life is certain -- if history has taught us anything -- it's that you can kill anyone." -- Michael Corleone.

Right now, though, any American who isn't please by the events of the weekend in Iraq should defect. Maybe the Liberals in Canada would like to reinforce their tenuous hold on Parliament with a bunch more leftist immigrants?

It's also bad news for other authoritarian Arab regimes that have suppressed the Shi'ites, with tacit support from the West, for decades. Unless, of course, Iraq turns into a theocracy like Iran ... unlikely, but never out of the question anywhere in the world where there is a predominant religious group. Not even in the U.S.!